Prompts for More Reliable Standards

Accuracy

• To what extent should true prophets be able to make false predictions still be counted as true prophets?

• Is there a required prediction accuracy rate to qualify as a true prophet?

  • Example: “A true prophet must have at least 70% of their predictions come true.”

Extraordinary vs. Ordinary

• Should predictions be extraordinary to count?

  • Example: Predicting that “the Moon will explode” might count, while predicting “earthquakes will sometimes occur” might not.

Specificity

• How specific must predictions be to count?

  • Example: “France will declare war on Australia in 2027” might count, while “great wars will soon occur” might not.

Formal Prefaces

• Should predictions include specific prefaces like “Thus saith the Lord” or “I prophesy”?

  • Example: “Thus saith the Lord, the Moon will explode in 2026” might count, but “The Moon will explode in 2026” might not.

Observable Fulfillment

• Must the prediction’s fulfillment be reliably observable?

  • Example: A prediction that “lava and ash will rain down on Iowa in 2026” might be reliably observable, whereas “spiritual destruction will rest upon Iowa in 2026” might generate disagreement over whether it had been fulfilled.

Weight of Minor vs. Major Predictions

• Should more allowance be made for minor unfulfilled predictions?

  • Example: “A true prophet must have at least 90% of their major predictions and at least 60% of their minor predictions come true.” 

• How should "major" and "minor" predictions be defined? For example:

  • Major Prediction: A specific, pre-recorded prophecy whose reliably observable fulfillment would be so unlikely that only an omniscient god could have informed the predictor.

  • Minor Prediction: A specific, pre-recorded prophecy whose fulfillment would be unlikely, though not extraordinarily so.

Contradictions

• To what extent should true prophets be able to contradict one another and still be counted as true prophets?

• Should there be a maximum “contradiction rating” among true prophets?

  • Example: “A true prophet will have no more than 30% of their teachings contradict those of other true prophets.”

Types of Contradictions

• Should different types of contradictions be weighed differently?

  • Example: Disagreements on morality or the nature of God might count as major contradictions, while differing opinions on food preferences might not.

Clarifications and Continuing Revelation

• How should “clarifications,” “continuing revelation,” and "contradictions" be defined and distinguished? For example:

  • Contradiction: A statement incompatible with prior teachings

  • Clarification: A statement compatible with prior teachings that improves understanding

  • Continuing Revelation: A statement compatible with prior teachings that adds detail or indicates a new course of action

Testing Definitions

• Are the following best classified as contradictions, clarifications, or continuing revelation? 

  • A past prophet said, "We shall not build a temple right at this moment," and a new prophet says, "Now is the time to build a temple."

  • A past prophet said, "Thou shalt not commit the ultimate sin," and a new prophet says, "The ultimate sin is murder."

  • A past prophet said, “It is unnecessary and selfish to scratch oneself," and a new prophet says, “There is no sin in relieving an itch."

  • A past prophet said, “It is superior to have more than one spouse," and a new prophet says, “It is superior to have one spouse."

Ethical Behavior

• Should an individual's prophetic status be influenced by the ethicality of their teachings?

• Is there a required percentage of ethical teachings?

  • Example: “A true prophet will have at least 70% of their teachings be ethical.”

Defining Ethics

• What practices count as “unethical”?

  • Examples: Deception, assault, murder, fraud, prejudice, slavery, discouragement of education, coercion

Cultural and Historical Context

• Should the prophet’s era or culture influence what counts as “unethical”?

  • Example: A prophet advocating slavery in a society where it was widely accepted might still be considered a true prophet, whereas a prophet advocating slavery in an anti-slavery society might count as a false prophet.

Apologies

• If an unethical act disqualifies someone from being a true prophet, can an apology restore their status?

Personal Feelings

• Should feelings/emotions about a prophet influence the evaluation?

  • If feelings are positive, to what extent do they validate the prophet?

  • If feelings are negative, to what extent do they invalidate the prophet?

  • Keep in mind that many people feel positive, spiritual feelings about their own religious leaders.

  • Use of feelings/emotions as standards of truth may constitute emotional reasoning (a pitfall discussed previously).

Performance of Miracles

• Should true prophets perform miracles or superhuman feats? 

• How can one best differentiate between superhuman feats and humanly possible feats?

  • Example: To determine whether revival after 3 days of pulselessness is humanly possible, one might consult relevant experts such as doctors.

• How should superhuman feats be verified? For example:

  • Third-hand accounts (e.g., you read, or someone tells you, "My cousin told me his friend flew over the Grand Canyon.")

  • Second-hand accounts (e.g., you read, or someone tells you, "My cousin flew over the Grand Canyon.")

  • First-hand accounts (e.g., you read, or someone tells you, "I flew over the Grand Canyon.") 

  • In-person experience (e.g., you directly witness someone fly over the Grand Canyon)

  • Photo or video documentation

  • Reproducible systematic experimentation

    • Example: A group of researchers, with no ties to the feat-performing individual, are asked to check the person for wires, magnets, jet packs, gliders, or other devices beforehand. They set up pressure plates on either side of the canyon and video cameras from multiple angles. They repeatedly record the miraculous event and measure the time it takes to cross the canyon. They repeat the experiment at different areas of the canyon. Their methods and findings are submitted for expert review and public critique. Months later, the experiments are repeated by a group of researchers with no ties to the previous group or the feat-performing individual. Their methods and findings are likewise submitted for critique by experts and the public.

  • A combination of the above (e.g., at least 5 second-hand accounts and 1 in-person experience)

Intermediate Categories

• Is there a gray zone between true and false prophets (e.g., semi-true prophets or inspired individuals)?

• If so, how important is it to recognize and define this category?

Number of Prophets

• Is there an expected number of true prophets at any given time?

  • Example: A static number (e.g., 20) or a percentage of the population (e.g., 1%).

Lineage and Authority

• Should all prophets arise from a specific line of succession or possess a unique type of authority?

• How would these criteria be reliably verified?

Falsifiability and Clarity

• Are the standards falsifiable?

  • Keep in mind that unfalsifiable standards (e.g., “All true prophets have a certain glow about them.”) cannot be evaluated in a reliable way. 

• Are the standards clear enough to ensure inter-observer reliability? (i.e., straightforward such that multiple observers are likely to agree on whether each criterion is met) 

Universality

• Are these standards rigorous and universal enough to evaluate individuals both within and outside the CoJCoLdS?

Please carefully consider these prompts and draft a fair, rigorous set of standards before continuing.

The author of Deuteronomy 18:22 proposed a straightforward standard for assessing prophets: 

“When a prophet speaketh in the name of the Lord, if the thing follow not, nor come to pass, that is the thing which the Lord hath not spoken, but the prophet hath spoken it presumptuously: thou shalt not be afraid of him.” 

In his discourse, “Profile of a Prophet,” President Hugh B. Brown asserted that a true prophet: 

• Would "be able to do superhuman things — things that no man could do without God’s help." 

• Would correctly predict future events.

• Would teach in “strict conformity” with the words of previous prophets.

• Would "denounce wickedness fearlessly."

The CoJCoLdS website, citing Doctrine and Covenants 1:38, teaches:

• The predictions of true prophets will always be fulfilled.

• The teachings of true prophets will always be trustworthy.

President Brigham Young emphasized the reliability of prophetic counsel, declaring:

“If there is an Elder here, or any member of this Church, called the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, who can bring up the first idea, the first sentence that I have delivered to the people as counsel that is wrong, I really wish they would do it; but they cannot do it, for the simple reason that I have never given counsel that is wrong; this is the reason.”

President Wilford Woodruff similarly stated:

“I say to Israel, the Lord will never permit me nor any other man who stands as the President of this Church, to lead you astray. It is not in the programme. It is not in the mind of God. If I were to attempt that, the Lord would remove me out of my place, and so He will any other man who attempts to lead the children of men astray from the oracles of God and from their duty.”

This teaching was later echoed by President Ezra Taft Benson, who affirmed:

“The prophet will never lead the Church astray.”

President Heber J. Grant reinforced this concept when advising then-bishop Marion G. Romney:

“My boy, you always keep your eye on the President of the Church, and if he ever tells you to do anything, and it is wrong, and you do it, the Lord will bless you for it. But you don’t need to worry. The Lord will never let his mouthpiece lead the people astray.”

Similarly, President M. Russell Ballard affirmed:

“We don't have to question anything in the church. Don’t get off into that. Just stay in the Book of Mormon. Just stay in the Doctrine and Covenants. Just listen to the prophets. Just listen to the apostles. We won't lead you astray. We cannot lead you astray.”

Together, these teachings highlight several key features of true prophets:

• True prophets will not lead others astray.

• True prophets will only make accurate predictions.

• True prophets will teach in “strict conformity” with the words of previous prophets.

• True prophets will “denounce wickedness fearlessly.”

While this is not a comprehensive list of CoJCoLdS teachings on the topic, I believe these statements form the foundation of how prophetic validity has commonly been understood within the faith.

The reader is encouraged to reflect on these teachings and consider how they might refine their set of standards for identifying true prophets.